Several simulation models are available for estimating the incidence of diabetic complications. Simulation modeling is gaining acceptance as a valuable tool for providing long-term information regarding prognosis such information is often unavailable from clinical studies. Regrettably, the incidence of chronic complications is unknown. In Mexico, three nationwide surveys have shown that adults with type 2 diabetes have a high prevalence of co-morbid conditions which contribute to the high incidence of macrovascular and microvascular complications. Nationwide population based surveys providing unbiased information regarding the prevalence and clinical characteristics of persons with diabetes are scant. Its prevalence in adults over the age of 20 has grown from 6.7% in 1993 to nearly 14% in 2006. Conclusionsīased on the current clinical profile of Mexican patients with diabetes, the burden of disease related complications will be tremendous over the next two decades.ĭiabetes is the principal cause of death in Mexico. Male sex and cases diagnosed after age 40 have the highest risk for developing at least one major complication during the next 20 years. The average life expectancy for the diabetic population is 10.9 years (95%CI 10.7-11.2) this decreases to 8.3 years after adjusting for quality of life (CI95% 8.1-8.5). Furthermore, 5 patients will have a diabetes-related premature death. The predicted 20 year-incidence for chronic complications per 1000 individuals are: ischemic heart disease 112, myocardial infarction 260, heart failure 113, stroke 101, and amputation 62. The prevalence of diabetes in our cohort was 14.4%. Results are shown stratified by gender, time since diagnosis (> or ≤ to 10 years) and age at the time of diagnosis (> or ≤ 40 years).

A total of 47,152 households were visited.

ENSANut is a probabilistic multistage stratified survey whose aim was to measure the prevalence of chronic diseases. The cohort included all patients with type 2 diabetes evaluated during the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANut) 2006. To estimate the incidence of complications, life expectancy and diabetes related mortality in the Mexican diabetic population over the next two decades using data from a nation-wide, population based survey and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) outcome model Methods

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